We Already Decided our Next President
Looking at the indicators, there is very little doubt of the outcome of this year’s midterm elections. The Democrats will make huge inroads. Two years later, who knows what will happen? Trump is a loose cannon, the Republican party is self-immolating, and the liberals are beside themselves. Slam dunk, right?
That’s not what I see.
I see several factions of our citizenry that are immensely powerful. But even those with less and less power are influential. Like it or not, Trump is trying to do things that conservatives have argued for over many decades.
If you say that Trump has not actually accomplished anything, you’re missing the point: aside from the tax cut, nearly nothing of importance has made its way through the legislature. A big part of the Trump (and Bannon?) approach, however, is tearing things down. Trump is exceptionally capable at destruction.
Destruction doesn’t need legislation, or even competence. Destruction is the natural state of the universe — entropy as it’s known in physics. Things not cared for, nurtured, maintained, or supported will naturally degrade. Trump is actively seeking ways to accelerate this process, and it’s working. Simple starvation and resource depletion is all it takes to degrade or destroy things.
Few people seem to like the means by which Trump is acting, but the ends are a beautiful thing to many conservatives — less government and more personal responsibility. Environment, education, energy, infrastructure, healthcare, social programs, climate, immigration, trade and so many more are being reshaped by attrition and neglect. The beauty of this for the conservatives is that they are somewhat insulated since Trump is actively preventing most forward motion — it’s Trump’s fault. Amusingly, Trump simply blames the Democrats.
Not all means result in justifiable ends to many Republicans, of course. We saw reactions after children were separated from their parents, for example. Trump is not like many Republicans, however — he was just trying to get something done in his own remarkable method: destruction.
So, while Republicans often need to hold their noses or run for cover, they are getting what they want. This makes Trump a (barely) tolerable force. This is the only rational explanation for 90% approval rating by Republicans.
Destruction is not a winning strategy in the very long term, if for no other reason than it’s fairly easy and fast, but just as likely to harm the things people want. It may also be that destruction starts to cut into the self-interests of constituents after the big items are sufficiently hobbled — the ends stop being good. Fortunately for Trump, Republicans are nice to have, but not the only tool in Trump’s power base.
Trump also has several other sources of power. Fox and Friends is very important as a propaganda mouthpiece, and this and other media are essential to swiftly and carefully propagate the message of the moment. These messages are targeted specifically to Trump’s base — shrinking or not, the important thing is not the size, but the way these forces have successfully manipulated, amplified, repeated, and refined the messaging. It’s pretty brilliant.
Another source of media support comes from an unlikely place: the mainstream. Liberal reactions to Trump’s scorched-earth strategies have been, are and presumably will continue to be simply incredulous. While it seems likely that most of the old-guard, Republicans and Democrats alike are horrified and alarmed at the means, for Democrats the ends are also inconceivable.
The news does its best to report, vacillating between headlines that are purely facts and those with more of an edge — declaring a statement false, or untrue, or incorrect. The more vociferous and pointed the headlines, the more energy is injected into the primary propaganda engines. The left unwittingly pours gasoline on the fire started by the right by flapping their wings like chickens.
Trump also has support from other unlikely sources: Russia, N. Korea, China and others have every interest in sowing and encouraging chaos. And while this pains me greatly to say, this would be an excellent time for a terrorist organization to stage another attack similar to 9/11. Chaos loves more chaos.
This is a hugely asymmetrical battle. Trump and the far right have figured out how to use all these forces to maintain a state of chaos. As long as the chaos continues (and again, chaos really doesn’t need too much help) the strategy will succeed.
Indeed, time seems to also be in Trump’s favor. Most of the efforts that have been initiated will take a good long time to show clear results. The news in the last days included wins for anti-immigration (Muslim travel ban) and anti-abortion cases in the supreme court with a 5–4 ruling in favor of the conservative views, and now a new justice will be appointed. This was a ball set in motion nearly a year before Trump took office. Finally, many of the changes will have positive results, especially economic results, before their downsides are evident.
Our next President will be Donald Trump.
Let us not forget, however, that the kind of power grab Trump and his witting and unwitting conspirators are promulgating is the same playbook as the authoritarian regimes of past and present. The end of forced chaos is chaos.
